2005 PAFFL Rookie Draft Projections

The first three choices likely will be Cedric Benson, Ronnie Brown & ‘The Cadillac’ Williams — not necessarily in that order. All three…

2005 PAFFL Rookie Draft Projections

The first three choices likely will be Cedric Benson, Ronnie Brown & ‘The Cadillac’ Williams — not necessarily in that order. All three were selected in the top five of the draft and bring unique talents but none of them are slam dunk fantasy starters to start their NFL careers. After that the talent is deep with players who could ultimately surprise and become fantasy studs in short order — players like RB’s Eric Shelton, JJ Arrington, Frank Gore, Ciatrick Fason, Maurice Clarett; QB’s Aaron Rodgers, Charlie Frye, Andrew Walter & WR’s Braylon Edwards, Mark Clayton, Mike Williams, Troy Williamson among others. So without further ado…..Here are my projected 2005 PAFFL rookie picks. This is the first year of the expanded format, including all sixteen teams. Thanks to a stellar rookie class, the talent is deep and will provide ample choices not only for the selections but also in the open auction.

Firkin Crawlers RB Ronnie Brown Miami Dolphins $55

Summary: Rumors of Ricky Williams return deflate Ronnie Brown’s value some, a larger concern though is Nick Saban’s preference to rotate backs (for reference look no further than L. Toefield/D. Davis at LSU from ’00-’03). That said Brown was selected #2 overall for a reason, he is a complete player with tremendous hands, very good speed (4.4) and the ideal size/strength to be a featured back. At this point my guess is Firkin takes Brown, however if Williams does officially return then Williams or Benson are safer picks who will leapfrog Brown. Other Options: Benson, Williams and maybe JJ Arrington.

Chicago $55RB Cedric Benson 2. Fightin’ Irie

Summary: Benson is the most accomplished of the top backs, amassing a huge number of yards the past four years displaying the type of natural running ability NFL teams desire. Benson isn’t the fastest, quickest or strongest but he’s good in all facets, and has shown the grind them out style that best fits the Bears new ground focused attack well. Texas under Mack Brown has produced a couple very good NFL backs (Ricky Williams & Priest Holmes) and Benson looks just as good as either of those guys. The one concern is the presence of Thomas Jones, who played well last year but is more of a scatback who fit the previous OC (Al Saunders) philosophy. The Irie’ need a back they can count on, thus Benson, the durable & consistent one, is their best choice. Other Options: Williams, A. Smith &/or JJ. Arrington
Freekmont Show RB Carnell “Cadillac” Williams Tamba Bay $55
Summary: Williams is the flashiest, and quickest, of the top three backs. He’s been a star since he arrived at Auburn (keeping Ronnie Brown on the bench in a reserve role) and brings a home run threat to the Bucs. Think of a bigger Clinton Portis type. However he fell behind Brown & Benson in the draft because he’s not as fast as the scouts like (4.5) for his size, and he has had a litany of injuries every year of his college career. Throw in Jon Gruden’s lack of success featuring a back & his disdain for counting on rookies are concerns. Plus the depth chart in Tamba Bay (Michael Pittman, Mike Alstott & Charlie Garner) is deep. But no NFL team can afford to spend a #5 overall pick on a non-QB who is going to sit and learn, so it’s safe to say the “Cadillac” will be driven. Freekmont will be tempted to take Alex Smith, but the opportunity to plug Williams into a lineup of Deuce McAllister & Stephen Jackson probably will be too tough to pass up. Other Options: Alex Smith or JJ Arrington

QB Alex Smith SF 49’ers $55 Naughty Thoughts 4.

Summary: Alex Smith may not have the hoopla of Eli Manning but he’s a talented, rare blend of accuracy, mobility & intelligence. The 49’ers aren’t the same offensive juggernaut they’ve been the past two decades, they do have potential, & being a 49’er never hurts your PAFFL value. Smith will battle Tim Rattay for the starting spot, however as the #1 overall selection it won’t be long before he’s handed the keys — my guess is week #8 at the latest. Naughty needs a quarterback for this year & the future, and he’ll be hard pressed to find a better one at this price in the open auction. Other Options: J.J. Arrington, A. Rodgers, J. Campbell, B. Edwards

Arizona $55RB J.J. Arrington Jack Trippers 5.

Summary: Arrington in one full season at Cal rushed ran for over 1800 yards, (the #5 all-time Pac-Ten single season total). Pundits claim his size (5’9” 212 lbs.) is too small to handle a featured role in the NFL but he’s the same height as future hall of famer’s Emmitt Smith & Barry Sanders who both were under 220 pounds. And don’t forget Arrington was one of the fastest backs (4.4) at the combine, something Dennis Green craves. A healthy Marcel Shipp will still some of the carries but the Cardinals spent a high 2ndround pick on Arrington with the intention of playing him. Trippers take Arrington with the hope he develops into the Offensive Rookie of the Year — as likely as any other rookie this year. Other Options: Aaron Rodgers, Jason Campbell, Maurice Clarett, Frank Gore

Green Bay $35QB Aaron Rodgers Jack Trippers 6.

Summary: Rodgers is more drop back than mobile, more old school than new and there’s also the theory that Jeff Tedford protégés are too robotic for the NFL. But he was extremely productive & successful the past two seasons at Cal — so successful in fact that it was one of the best two year runs (both statistically & team) for the school in over 30 years. Favre has no more than 2 years left in him, and going on 12 consecutive seasons without missing a start is remarkable but you have to figure that streak will eventually end with an injury. With a strong supporting cast in place, Rodgers is a steal for the Trippers in the high thirties / low forties. Other Options: M. Clarett, F. Gore, J. Campbell,E. Shelton

Denver Broncos $30RB Maurice Clarett IMT 7.

Summary: As Broncos HC Mike Shanahan said, Clarett looked like a top ten pick two years ago — and as we’ve all learned the Broncos know how to churn out 1000 yard backs. Five of them over the past eight years to be exact (Terrell Davis, Olandis Gary, Mike Anderson, Clinton Portis & Rueben Droughns — not to mention making Q. Griffin & T. Bell look like stars last year at times). In fact you could make an argument that Clarett is the most accomplished of any of those guys entering the NFL. Considering he’s already listed as the backup (to T. Bell) Clarett could be the surprise rookie who creates fantasy champions next year — all he needs is a Tatum Bell injury or poor performance. IMT will take a chance on a high reward, big name back.Other Options: J. Campbell,E. Shelton, F. Gore

Ron Jeremy QB Jason Campbell Washington $30

Summary: Is JP Losman at $33 a good deal for Naughty Thoughts? That’s essentially Jason Campbell — selected in nearly the identical spot as Losman in ’04, Campbell was drafted with the expectation of being the starting quarterback in DC for ’06. So it’s a one year investment in a starting QB who has shown a big arm, accuracy and some mobility, and displayed flashes of brilliance in his Auburn career. Remember the Redskins traded up into the 1stround to select Campbell, so it’s a safe investment for Ron Jeremy. Other Options: Eric Shelton, Frank Gore, R. Moats

9. PA Short Bus RB Eric Shelton Carolina $25

Summary: Shelton is a bruising, north-south runner in the Stephen Davis mold — which is precisely the type of back HC John Fox prefers. Shelton has the size & strength to excel in the Panthers offense, and nearly as important he faces fragile competition for playing time. Davis, 33 years old, is attempting to return from microfracture knee surgery and the Panthers aren’t counting on him to play again. DeShaun Foster is slated to start but he’s been as injury prone as any NFL player the past three years, failing to complete a single season. Nick Goings played as well as he could in spot duty last year. The reality is the Panthers hope to rotate a healthy Foster with a bruising Shelton — and unless the rookie falls flat in camp the worse he’ll do is five to ten touches a game and likely goal line duty. In most seasons Sheltonwould be a top 6 PAFFL rookie pick but in a draft deep with RB talent, Shelton falls to #9. The Short Bus hope to still this sleeper. Other Options: Frank Gore, Braylon Edwards, Ciatrick Fason

10. Pomona Stoners RB Frank Gore SF 49’ers $20

Summary: The 49’ers new coaching staff stated three primary objectives for the 2005 team — 1) an offensive line upgrade, 2) playmakers & 3) consistency. Frank Gore was on top of the Miami Hurricanes tailback depth chart going into the ’01 season before a torn ACL gave way to Clinton Portis, then another in ’02 allowed Willis McGahee to come out of nowhere. Gore returned in ’04 with a solid performance that improved along with the season. He has good size, great natural football instincts and will be nearly two years from his last surgery. Kevan Barlow is the incumbent, but this coaching staff will play the best player, and Gore could outpace Barlow in camp (as Maurice Hicks did in ’04) to claim the starting spot. The opportunity to start and the 49’er connection, make this an easy choice for Pomona_. Other Options:_ Braylon Edwards, Ciatrick Fason, R. Moats

11. Salem Beavercats RB Ryan Moats Philadelphia $20

Summary: Moats is a scrappy, change of pace, 3rd down type who resembles the current Eagles starter Brian Westbrook. With the Eagles disdain for paying veterans top dollar, Moats could ascend to the starting spot once in ’06 if Buckhalter & Westbrook’s bolt in free agency. For this season expect no more than limited opportunities unless an injury hits Buckhalter and/or Westbrook. The Beavercats will hedge their bets by topping Moats in hopes of him developing into a starter in ’06. Other Options: Frank Gore, Braylon Edwards, Ciatrick Fason
12. South Whore Jibbers RB Ciatrick Fason Minnesota $25
Summary: Fason is a complete back; he has solid hands, shows good vision, blocks adequately and has generally displayed a nice athleticism at Florida. The knocks on him are his upright running style, poor cutting ability and a lack of top end speed (4.5). He’s a sleeper in what’s quickly turning out to be an open competition between himself, Michael Bennett & Mewelde Moore. HC Mike Tice has stated he wants to rely on a single starter who can handle a full load, so Fason could just as easily rise to the top — a dream scenario for the Jibbers loaded at WR and in need of another RB to team w/ LT. Other Options: Braylon Edwards, Kyle Orton, Mark Clayton

Blak Jesus WR Braylon Edwards Cleveland $30

Summary: Edwards is a true playmaker with the size, speed & attitude to be a gamebreaker. He doesn’t have blazing speed but he plays faster than the’s timed, and he’s tremendous in jump ball situations — particularly around the goalline where he aggressively manhandles defensive backs for the ball. In fantasy terms, Braylon should emerge as the Browns first go-to receiver in years but w/ Dilfer at the helm Edwards will top out at around 800 yards & 5 td’s in ’05 but that’s good enough for Blak Jesus. Other Options: Braylon Edwards, Kyle Orton, Mark Clayton, Brandon Jacobs
PA Firefighters RB Brandon Jacobs NY Giants $15
Summary: Jacobs, originally at Auburn, transferred to S. Illinois once he realized Cadillac & R. Brown were ahead of him on the depth chart. In one year, Jacobs displayed a bruising inside running ability with limited wiggle but explosiveness rare in a man of his size. In Tom Coughlin’s scheme he could surprise as a red zone back in ’05 and expand his role in ’06. The Firefighters love low flying RB & WR prospects, and Jacobs is a major sleeper candidate that fits their profile & need for young RB depth. Other Options: Kyle Orton, Mark Clayton, Reggie Brown, Alvin Pearman, Charlie Frye

Team Kitty QB Charlie Frye Cleveland $15

Summary: Frye has below average athletic ability, an average arm and didn’t dominant at the mid major MAC conference level — where former NFL stars Pennington, Roethlisberger, Leftwich & Culpepper all played. That said, Frye is a heady player, who makes good decisions and is in an ideal situation to eventually start. Current starter Trent Dilfer (33 years old) is the only player standing in front of him but Frye, and early minicamp reports were positive. Team Kitty will top Frye hoping for a little magic in ’06. Other Options: Kyle Orton, Mark Clayton, Brandon Jacobs, Alvin Pearman

LA Isotopes QB Kyle Orton Chicago Bears $15

Summary: Midway thru the 2004 college football season, Orton was the leading heisman candidate and a projected early 1st round NFL selection. Then a few minor injuries led to back to back poor performances and Orton’s senior season went into a tailspin. However we can’t forget Orton put up consistent numbers for three straight years leading Purdue to bowl games in each of the seasons. He’s a strong armed QB with pocket mobility and the experience to eventually succeed on the NFL stage. Which is why this is a steal for Chicago in the 4th round. Rex Grossman hasn’t proved anything, and it’s conceivable that Orton could start games as early as ’05 if the Bears struggle to score. The Isotopes will top Orton and hope he can regain his touch when Grossman either fails or falls victim to another injury. Other Options: Mark Clayton, Andrew Walter, Alvin Pearman

2005 PAFFL Rookie Draft Projections

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