2014 Fantasy Football Rookie Projections Revisited

In hindsight we have the power of fact, and in an exercise in humility I went back to look at my projections from the 2014 NFL rookie class…

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2014 Fantasy Football Rookie Projections Revisited

In hindsight we have the power of fact, and in an exercise in humility I went back to look at my projections from the 2014 NFL rookie class to see how I fared in my opinions. For this I used a binary (yes or no) for each player listed in my top 16, then added subjective comments.

Why 2014? The NFL is a complicated game, it requires preparation, repetition and time to demonstrate ones ability. This is particularly true at the quarterback and receiver (WR & TE) positions where the timing, understanding of the playbook and speed of the game are paramount to success. Thus two years in the league seems like a fair point to judge whether a player is going to amount to something or not.

Before we get into the specific projections, my success or “Hit” rate was 67%. Of the 16 rookies I hit on 10, missed on 5and 1 incomplete. However there were a couple glaring omissions, most notably Odell Beckham from the top 16.

Also note that the commentary/analysis below is from the original 2014 article, truncated where applicable. You can read the original article here. Without further ado.

1. QB Johnny Manziel — Advanced metrics say he’s likely a star and there’s something “special” about his composure. No situation is too big for him. Yes he may party and he’s unorthodox but some players just have “it”.

• 2016 Evaluation: Missed badly….yes he parties too much, and that’s the start of the many many issues that have derailed his life.

The rest of this article (including commentary on all 16 rookies analyzed and missed players can be read at FFCollective.