2018 NFL QB Rookie Rankings

The 2018 NFL crop of incoming talent shows promise at the games most important position, quarterback, and brings a wealth of top-level…

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2018 NFL QB Rookie Rankings

The 2018 NFL crop of incoming talent shows promise at the games most important position, quarterback, and brings a wealth of top-level talent at running back. Wide receiver and tight end are where this year’s class is lacking both immediate production and long-term star power. When you dive into the details you can see a variance over last year by position. There will be some immediate league winning talent in this class and some staying power, but it’s concentrated in QB & RB more so than in recent years.

Quarterback Rankings

The quarterback position features five (5) first-round selections in the NFL draft, including four of the first ten picks (an NFL all-time record). These players will receive more than ample opportunity to develop into starting face of franchise type players, which means they will have long performance leashes. For Super Flex leagues (those that allow up to 2 starting QB’s) there is some immediate talent here for 2018. In dynasty (keeper leagues) all five of the 1st round talents, as well as 3rd round selection (Mason Rudolph) by Pittsburgh, deserve a spot on rosters. Beyond that initial six players, it’s a long development cycle and the talent gap is wider.

1. Josh Rosen (ARI) — the beautiful mechanics star of this class, Rosen has all the NFL starting QB traits. He’s able to run through his 3rd & 4th reads, is accurate at every level and throws a beautiful ball. The question marks are part real and part superficial. He can at times lack touch/pace on short throws/screens, and he panics once he feels the pressure and is pushed out of the pocket. The difference between a top 4 and 10 selection spot though is likely a result of concerns around his passion for football, an outspoken personality, and leadership, than any real talent gap. History tells us that top 15 quarterback selections are a 50/50 proposition. More often than not the difference is landing spot and culture surrounding the player. Rosen’s landing spot is better than people realize and he’s the most pro ready. If he can outperform Sam Bradford in camp, he could be a quality QB2 out of the gate.
2. Lamar Jackson (BAL) — arguably the most explosive and productive power 5 QB prospect ever; Jackson is a more advanced pocket passer than pundits give him credit for. On tape, he reads through multiple progressions, displays patience and a willingness to hang in to deliver a ball under pressure. He lacks touch on screens and high % short throws but he’s accurate driving the ball on outs/ins 10+ yards down the field. He has the potential to be this era’s Dan Marino, a future HOF who dropped to the end of 1st round. His running ability will make him an instant top 15 fantasy scoring QB when he gets his chance to start. We’ve seen it time and time again, dynamic running QB’s outperform in their initial year(s) starting in the league (Vince Young, Michael Vick, RG3).
3. Sam Darnold (NYJ) — the presumptive favorite to be #1 overall pick heading into ’17 season, Darnold continued to show franchise QB skills but he turned the ball over more and suffered from a mediocre supporting cast (vs. ’16 when he had JuJu Smith-Schuster). Darnold projects though to be a Tony Romo/Matt Stafford type, willing/able to make any throw with the moxie to hang in the pocket. As the youngest QB selection in the past 40 years, Darnold needs time to sit/learn, if things fall into place he could be the Jim Kelly of this draft class.
4. Baker Mayfield (CLE) — a fiery, competitive leader with good move and accuracy skills lands in a strong situation (surrounded by decent OL, a deep/strong receiving and RB groups and a creative offensive play caller — Todd Haley). Mayfield’s floor is lower than Jacksons but his leash as the #1 overall pick is much longer, and he possesses a little of the run ability that props up his potential fantasy value. QB2 if he starts out this year with QB1 (top 5) potential as he develops in ’19 and beyond.
5. Josh Allen (BUF) — I am biased here, I simply don’t like Allen. 50% of these picks will bust, I’m confident Allen will be one. That said here is a case for why I may be wrong. Allen has the size, athletic ability and arm strength to be successful in a power run, downfield offensive system. Paired with a dominant run game and defense, he can be a game manager (ala Big Ben in ’04 w/ Pitt) for the first couple of years, reducing the negative parts of his game (accuracy and decision making). As the draft’s 7th overall selection, he will get a longer than normal leash (likely 1.5+ seasons) to learn on the job and he will provide some immediate fantasy starting potential in super flex leagues due to his leagues and a big arm. It’s the sustained team success that worries, at some point he must win as a starter to keep his job.
6. Mason Rudolph (PIT) — Selected in the 3rd round, the Pittsburgh Steelers are making an investment at QB knowing that Ben Roethlisberger is year to year at this point in his career. With a stable organization, strong supporting cast and time to sit and learn, Rudolph couldn’t have landed in a better situation. History says Rudolph has a 50%+ chance to get a shot at the starting job, and the probability is low (18%) that he sticks as a multi-year starting quarterback. In this organization that is a solid QB2 with low QB1 upside.