2018 NFL WR & TE Rookie Rankings

The 2018 NFL crop of incoming talent shows promise at quarterback and running back, particularly at the top of both positions. However wide…

2018 NFL WR & TE Rookie Rankings

Ridley is this year’s fantasy rookie WR headliner

The 2018 NFL crop of incoming talent shows promise at quarterback and running back, particularly at the top of both positions. However wide receiver and tight end are where this year’s class is lacking both immediate production and long-term star power. When you dive into the details you can see a variance over last year by position. The tight end position is coming off arguably it’s deepest and strongest year ever in ’17. This year there are some early picks (Hayden Hurst in 1st round eg) but these compared to ’17 would be late 2nd or even 3rd rounders. The wide receiver position has a ton of players who project as number two receivers in the NFL and likely cap out as WR2 types for fantasy. Outside of Calvin Ridley, Anthony Miller, and Christian Kirk, few of these receivers landed in immediate target rich environments. None of them project to be true number one type NFL receivers. One or two may develop into that but they don’t easily project at this stage.

WR Rankings

Calvin Ridley (ATL) — The Atlanta Falcons have been one of the most prolific, wide receiver dominant passing attacks over the past decade. Ridley brings a dimension to their offense that they’ve lacked since the retirement of Roddy White. Ridley brings quick-twitch ability to take advantage of single coverage and play action pass opportunities. Ridley has a low ceiling (secondary to Julio Jones) and high floor (lots of targets in a high-quality passing offense). Near-term Ridley likely will have the highest rookie fantasy production of any wide receiver, resulting in likely WR3 production (initial projection is WR4). Long term I predict DJ Moore, James Washington, and Dante Pettis to have more value (they appear to have more upside).
D.J. Moore (CAR) — The Carolina Panthers are hoping that Moore will develop into a difference-making, go-to receiver to pair with their Superman, QB Cam Newton. Moore is their fourth 1st or 2nd round receiver selection over the past 4 drafts: Kelvin Benjamin, Devin Funchess, Curtis Samuel & Moore. Moore checks the proverbial boxes: impressive stats at a power 5 conference school (Big 10); elite analytical testing; good NFL size; and shows up on film. The question marks are how well he translates to the NFL from a simplistic offense and whether he can be more efficient with his route running & releases. There are some Panther fans and professional pundits who have compared Moore to former Carolina great Steve Smith. I don’t see it in the film. Smith was a street fighter, who played like every play was life or death. Moore is slippery and difficult to tackle but I don’t see the effort on contested plays or “life or death” effort on every play. If Moore can get to 85% of Smith’s intensity, he has a chance to be Carolina’s true featured receiver since Smith left in 2012.
Christian Kirk (ARI) — a mid-second round selection by the Cardinals. Kirk has the size and quickness to make an immediate impact. Couple that with no established targets behind Larry Fitzgerald and David Johnson, and there is a potential 100+ target volume as a rookie. At the very least he’ll be in the mix for a starting spot and will learn from behind one of all time greats. Meaning he’s worth an investment this year (in dynasty & redraft) but is as well positioned to break out in ’19 as the Cardinals transition from Fitzgerald to the next generation.
Anthony Miller (CHI) — A late second-round selection for the Bears. There isn’t much in front of Miller to impede his opportunity. A strong, stout type of receiver who can play outside or in. If you believe in Mitchell Trubisky’s talent and the Bears will take another positive step forward, then Miller is well positioned to get 100+ targets as a rookie. If you don’t believe in Trubisky and/or Bears passing offense, then wait on Miller as a potential waiver wire add as he assimilates to the pro game.
Dante Pettis (SF) — Pettis was selected with the forty-forth pick in the 2018 NFL draft by the San Francisco 49’ers. The Washington Husky set the all-time mark with 9 career punt return tds, and amassed another 24 receiving tds, 167 catches and 2298 total yards from scrimmage. Pettis is a willing blocker, a prototype slot receiver who runs good routes is a yac master who can function in all the receiving options. He should also impact special teams, potentially adding another scoring punch. If he can carve out an immediate slot role, demonstrate the route runner and versatility, he could be in line for 90 to 100 targets and immediate fantasy relevance (WR3). More than likely he’ll learn with half that volume and step into a major volume role in ’19.

TE Rankings

Dallas Goedert(PHI) — Goedert put up silly numbers at the FCS level (198 Catches, 2998 Yards, and 21 TD’s over the past 2 years; exceeding 70 catches & 1k yards in each of the past two seasons). Landing in a tight end friendly offense in the NFL is ideal, though he’s behind one of the best young versatile tight ends, Zach Ertz means his near-term opportunity is limited. Temper fantasy expectations in ’18 but this is a player who could eventually be the primary receiving option, even ahead of Ertz, as soon as ’20.
Hayden Hurst (BAL) — The Ravens have one of the worst passing offenses the past two years. With the selection of Lamar Jackson, the Ravens are admitting that veteran Joe Flacco’s hold on the job is looser and they’re preparing for a transition. The impact of any potential change on the TE position is difficult to project. However, Flacco has been a tight end friend, utilizing the position as a security blanket with players such as Owen Daniels, Ben Watson, and Dennis Pitta putting up low-end TE1 performances over the past decade. In recent years a dearth of talent has kept the team from producing a single fantasy-worthy option at the position. Hurst’s athletic profile is mediocre and general college production average. Which leads me to believe the Hurst selection will not change the fortunes of Baltimore’s tight end position.
Mike Gesicki (MIA) — Adam Gase, Miami’s head coach and offensive guru, has utilized the tight end position in the past (Denver eg) however his Miami teams have been in the bottom third (100 or less total TE targets). Gesicki, selected in the early 2nd round, has the college resume and athletic profile that projects success though. With the loss of more than 150 targets (Jarvis Landry) and no established tight ends on the roster, Gesicki could be force-fed 80+ targets, resulting in mid TE1 (or greater) rookie year performance. The probability though is low that Gesicki will be a top fantasy producer this year and there are reasons to believe he will never be a major impact performer under Adam Gabe’s direction.