How Patrick Mahomes Has Become the NFL’s Version of Michael Jordan

It’s the end of January and we’ve got our super bowl matchup set. It’s a rematch from the 2019 season (2020 super bowl) but the hype will…

How Patrick Mahomes Has Become the NFL’s Version of Michael Jordan

Super Bowl 58 Matchup Set (KC vs. SF); How Mahomes has evolved into NFL’s Michael Jordan
_Episode 65 of the Fantasy Sports Collective Podcast covers Super Bowl 58 storylines, and tackles how Patrick Mahomes…_share.transistor.fm

It’s the end of January and we’ve got our super bowl matchup set. It’s a rematch from the 2019 season (2020 super bowl) but the hype will be enormous thanks to Swifty nation, Mahomes brilliance and the many stars on the 49’ers side. It’s going to be a fun media super bowl.

The Kansas City Chiefs, in their 4th super bowl over the past 5 years, facing the San Francisco 49’ers, in their 2nd super bowl over the past 4 years. Both of these teams have been in their respective conference title games for 6 consecutive seasons (KC) and 4 of the past 5 (SF). So they’re no underdog stories or upstart mystique, these are arguably the two best franchises in their respective conferences the past half decade, and given their rosters, they could easily be at the top of the heap for the next 5 years as well.

The Storylines

Will Taylor Swift be at the Super Bowl and what effect will she have? Seems highly likely that she will be at the game. She’s attended every other high profile game, and while her last show in Tokyo ends the night before, she can get there via private flights with nearly a full day ahead of the show. So if she wants to be there, she will be. What effect will she have on the game, likely little at this juncture. If you’re a conspiracy theorist, there is little to no value in tilting the game in the favor of one team or the other at this point. Where her impact is certainly felt is in the total audience to tune into the game, possibly in ticket prices and most definitely in the pre-game hype department. It maybe a distraction for the KC side but likely not.

How do you beat Patrick Mahomes, who increasingly looks like the NFL’s version of Michael Jordan? Let me explain the Jordan reference. The GOAT maybe Tom Brady, or even Jerry Rice, but Jordan wasn’t just immensely talented as a player, it was the combination of him being great and the fiercest competitor, who won at all costs. Brady is an incredible competitor (Jordan like) but he lacks the physical skills, and Rice was both but he played a position that had less control of the outcome. Mahomes after this run, lacking any discernible advantage on offense, throwing to mostly inexperienced or hand me down receivers, has architected this improbable run. This is easily the worst Chiefs offense that’s made the super bowl in Mahomes tenure. Why is this worse than last year you ask? Well last year you had a younger Kelce, more diversity at running back with Jerrick McKinnon, and some excitement at receiver to keep defenses honest. This year McKinnon is out, Kelce is still fantastic but in less sustained periods and the receivers have mostly shown they’re pedestrian. In fact it would be shocking if KC doesn’t draft a receiver in the 1st round and/or use free agency to nab a Calvin Ridley type to provide Mahomes a security blanket as Kelce ages out.

Put it this way — Mahomes has single-handedly willed this offense, and to a great extent, the entire team, to win 3 straight games where they were perceived and real underdogs, and they’re back in the super bowl without a single 1k yard runner or receiver, and no clear competitive mismatches except at quarterback. That’s Jordanesqe.

How does KC stop the 49’ers dynamic running offense? KC’s defense has been outstanding, particularly at the end of the season and playoffs but they are vulnerable against the rush. The 49’ers have one of the most dynamic rush offenses with the NFL rushing leader (CMC), and this is where Kyle Shanahan loves to gameplan for. He pigheadedly tried to run at Detroit’s defensive strength (nearly losing the game in the process), so this will be a difficult challenge for the Chiefs defense. That said they’ve been very good at building unique gameplans that slow down the opposition. The Buffalo Bills came out moving the pile and running up and down the field on the Chiefs, only to see halftime adjustments shut down their success, turning the tide. The Ravens surprisingly only gave 6 total carries to running backs in the AFC Title game, abandoning their strength, and seemingly their best chance to control the ball and march down the field.

Super Bowl Prediction

Kansas City Chiefs vs. SF 49’ers. 49’ers are -1.5 favorites; O/U 47.5 points.

As I said last week, you can’t bet against Patrick Mahomes. However, I in my heart are a 49’ers fan, and I can’t bet against my own team, especially in such a toss-up matchup. My head says the 49’ers strengths are a good fit against this Chiefs team, which aren’t great against the run. This is a pedestrian Chiefs team but they still have arguably the best quarterback ever, in his prime.

If the 49’ers can win the trenches, pressure on defense and positive movement in the run game, they will have an advantage and should win. A bet though on the 49’ers is one against brilliance, and one for “it’s their time”.

I’m taking the 49’ers they are the more complete team, with a staff and system that is due to win. But the Chiefs are at least a 50% probability to win because of Mahomes, Andy Reid, and their championship experience.

NFL’s popularity

The stat that brought this home to me was not that 93 of the top 100 watched programs last year were NFL broadcasts. It’s that everybody is hyped on college football and claim it’s the fastest growing, it’s right there growing with the NFL. However the national championship game had a recent record reaching 25 million viewers. Both NFL conference title games were above 53 million viewers, that’s a huge gap. And the Super Bowl will draw more than 200 million viewers, which is 8x more than the equivalent college football product. In short college football isn’t even in the same stratosphere, it’s in the NBA and even big college basketball realms.