NBA Free Agency Winners & Losers (mid stream)

Winners & Losers

Winners & Losers

NBA Free Agency Winners & Losers (mid stream)

Winners & Losers

To definitively declare true winners and losers, we’d need to look into the future and know the end result. Short of that we’re left to our own imagination. Relying on general data points and the eye test though we construct the context to make an educated guess on the near and mid terms of the decisions NBA teams have taken over the past few weeks. These decisions take years though to properly judge the quality and accuracy of takes, in short this is an uncomplete but entirely accurate and valid take on free agency (and draft selections) to date for the summer of 2018.

We’re less than nine days into free agency. There are several more big names that will shift the winners & losers (Clint Capela, Isaiah Thomas, Marcus Smart, Jabari Parker), none though more important than what ultimately happens with Kawhi Leonard. If the Spurs move him to Philadelphia or Los Angeles (either team), that will sway this list considerably. Like the summer of ’17, this won’t be a finished list until all the balls have dropped.

Winners

LA Lakers

The Lakers are the biggest winner. Securing the services of the “King”, the best player in the world, he can’t possibly sustain his recent new peak performance. But 90% of last year is the worthy ‘18-’19 mvp. He’s demonstrated an ability to single-handedly will his team to the mountaintop (eg 8x consecutive streak), utilizing elite level passion and performance. Putting him with a good underrated young core, the sky is the limit. Here’s a look at their three biggest young players and their fit:

Brandon Ingram- Lanky, springy, position less big with an emerging shoot. Six-nine with a 7’3” wingspan, he’s got the ideal small forward who can switch 2–4, even on five in small lineups. He turns 21 in September, he will continue to improve. I personally see him as a poor man’s Giannis. He’ll get to 20/8/4 status as a multi-time all-star but he’ll fail to become a perennial all NBA performer. LeBron will help Ingram reach his full potential by getting him more room to operate and easy buckets.

Kyle Kuzma- Kuz was a major find and draft steal as a late 1st round selection. A smallish power forward (6’9” 220 lbs), he’s a modern NBA 3 & D type. The only problem is he’s a defensive liability as a power forward and conversely possibly not quick enough to contain the above average wings. He’s only 22, if he can commit more to the defensive side of the game, and focus on efficiency on the offensive end of the floor, he’ll be a great complement to LeBron’s game. A Kevin Love type for this incarnation of Bron’s.

Lonzo Ball- Behind all the “Ball Family” hoopla is a twenty-year-old with an elite passing skill, the makings of a top-tier defensive point guard, and enough time to improve his scoring efficiency. Ball at twenty averaged10.2 PPG, 7.2 APG, 6.9 RPG, and 1.7 SPG. It takes all great point guards a year or two to acclimate to the league. Ball reminds me of Jason Kidd. Both are bigger PG’s (Kidd thicker, Ball taller) who were given a truly special talent of court vision. LeBron may be surprised at how much Ball takes off his load. He’s not naturally a ball dominant point guard, preferring to push the ball decisively, at times giving the casual fan a sense he doesn’t want the ball in his hands, to the best option. Big key for Ball; if he can get his 3 point percentage up five points to 36%, defenses won’t be able to leave him wide open. With Rondo & Ball, LeBron is playing with the best set of facilitators of his career.

Summary — The Lakers won the summer simply by now being in the legitimate title contender conversation. They aren’t there yet, most likely they’ll end up in the 5–6 seed range. This year is about gaining the experience and developing chemistry to set the foundation for another superstar free agent in the summer of ’19 to pair with the King in his twilight years and supplement the young emerging talent already on the roster.

Golden State Warriors

The Warriors did not break the NBA. A win for this team was getting Kevin Durant back (albeit on another 1-year deal) and resigning emerging PF Kevon Looney to a veteran minimum deal. Getting Patrick McCall would be icing on the proverbial kite. Then Monday afternoon, a mere 24ish hours after the decision 3, the news dropped that all-star C DeMarcus “Boogie” Cousins was signing for the MLE (mid-level exception), cries rang out on twitter “the NBA is broken”. My twitter feed was filled with snarky, hatred level comments. I understand the immediate reaction is depression, after awhile general apathy sets in as you assume the ’18-’19 season result is a foregone conclusion. “It’s sim mode” until next June, “seriously can we just fast forward to the finals?”

DeMarcus Cousins — A fully healthy Cousins is a 23 PER, 6+ WS elite NBA basketball player. He is also somebody who has now been discarded by two different talent needy NBA franchises. He is also recovering from an Achilles surgery in January. There is a possibility he doesn’t play until January, or even much later. History tells us Achilles surgeries sap explosiveness from the player. Innovation though is a counter, experts claim the severity of the surgery is significantly reduced. It’s a “scope” procedure now. Under almost every circumstance, this is a 1 year $5.3M rental deal. If Cousins is just 75% of his former self-next year he’ll be an upgrade over last season group. Cousins can shoot, and his game has always been rooted in technique, vision, and sheer girth, then explosive athletic ability.

Kudos to “Boogie” too for his hustle. If he didn’t have any better offers, credit him for proactively pitching his fit to the Warriors. He saw a hoops fit on the floor, presumably a team willing to let him rehab in full, and an opportunity to play for an NBA championship. If the odds and projections play out as expected. Cousins can return after the all-star break. He can fall into a #4 scoring option, more a facilitator and rebounder, showcasing a wider range of ability on a team arguably more heavily favored than any other in modern NBA history. In short, if it goes as planned, Boogie will get a big contract next year playing for the X (insert lottery team here). But for the cost of one discount salaried season, he’ll have invested in his legacy and current league perception.

Memphis Grizzlies

They may have found themselves a star in Jaren Jackson Jr. their #4 overall selection. J3 (that’s my nickname for him) has a smooth stroke (8 3’s in first summer league game), is a praying mantis on defense and passes the eye test as a versatile impact player who at 19 is only going to improve. Adding an improvement on the wing via Kyle Anderson, albeit on a bigger than deserved contract, sets the Grizzlies up for a solid core starting group. The key though is J3, if he continues to shine, the Grizzlies will be one of the major winners of the 2018 offseason.

Eastern Conference

More specifically Boston and Philadelphia, who now appear to be head and shoulders the best two teams in the east and will only have to get through the other to reach the NBA Finals.

Losers

Sacramento Kings

The opposite end of the Grizzlies, the Kings may have struck out with their top pick. Bagley isn’t necessarily a bust but he looks like just another guy in summer league. Bagley compares stylistically to former #1 overall pick Joe Smith (my earlier piece goes more in depth), which isn’t terrible but it’s not the star, face of franchise type they need. On a plus side young talents such as Justin Jackson and Harry Giles have shown improvement. Coaxing a $78M salary commitment (and hence reducing another teams cap) via matched offer sheet to Zach LaVine is another small victory for a tortured fan base. However, with their ’19 1st, unprotected, owned by Boston (or if #1 overall then Philly), they have no reason to tank but will be one of the bottom five teams based on talent. The future is not bright on the hardcourt in Sacramento.

Oklahoma City Thunder

The Thunder thriftiness suffocated a potential dynastic run. Karma is a bitch.

I realize I’m in the minority placing OKC in the losers column (with PG’s resigning) but this team had a championship favorite window they passed on 5 years ago to avoid the luxury tax. Now they’re gonna be one of the biggest NBA taxpayers in history to lock in a mediocre playoff team — and somehow kept the worst of back to back to back MVP selections as their franchise cornerstone. Thus they’re losers this offseason b/c they’re paying the price, karma & real, for being too short sided in August of 2012 and overreacting to Durant’s departure by overpaying for Paul George & Carmelo Anthony.

Cleveland Cavs

It’s bad but the spirit and potential is so much better this time. LeBron’s departure, losing the best basketball player of his generation, makes the Cavs an obvious choice. Their cupboard is full of mediocre assets and worse, they gave away their ’19 unprotected 1st to Atlanta (for Korver in ‘17). Mental note, that’s a nice asset for the Hawks. My take, Cavs need to rebuild the values of their veterans, and set goal for a playoff spot. It may not be realistic but with no draft pick, there’s no alternative. If successful, Cavs can flirt with .500, then unload veterans at a closer to “high” value.

Western Conference Teams (sans Lakers & Warriors)

For the immediate future (’18-’19 and beyond if dubs stay intact), the Warriors are an overwhelming favorite and the Lakers will displace up & coming teams such as New Orleans, Minnesota, Portland and/or Denver from the playoffs. The inclusion of LeBron just makes the western conference playoff run more treacherous. That’s bad news, a firm loser ledger entry.