NBA’s Musical Chairs Summer

Due to a cap increase, availability of 2 of the top 3 players and teams looking to adjust to the change in play will result in madness

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NBA’s Summer of Musical Chairs

If you’re a fan of personnel chaos and change, of major personnel moves from your national basketball league team of choice, this summer promises to be an epic one. It’s a result of shorter star contracts (thanks LeBron), escalating cap space (every team now has money to spend) and many teams looking to adjust their roster to the change in NBA play.

Let’s start with the 2016 free agent class, which includes Kevin Durant, LeBron James, and a half dozen other multi-all star players. Durant and James are franchise changers, arguably two of the leagues top three players, and several other max contract quality all stars (Wade, Drummond, Al Horford, Mike Conley among others), are all available this summer.

The NBA salary cap is escalating due to massive tv contracts kicking in, increasing it nearly 25% this year and another 15% or so for the ‘17-’18 season. This means every single team will enter free agency with cap space (a first since the early days of the cap) and many with massive room. In fact the league has $1.6B committed in salaries but they must spend another $1.4B to hit the minimum player spend in the CBA (NBA contract with the player’s association). The result in the salary increase is teams will effectively be able to sign any free agent they like and/or complete any trade combination.

There is a shift in the NBA playing style best exemplified by the Golden State Warriors high efficiency offensive approach but originally ushered in by the San Antonio Spurs. This change is forcing personnel chiefs across the league to rethink their rosters. The traditional roster construction is out, shooting, versatility and defense are in. This leads to more teams willing to make major roster moves, such as:

• LA Clippers — their primary star, Chris Paul, is getting up in age. Their core is great (Paul, DeAndre Jordan & Blake Griffin) but maybe better built for a bygone era. They’ve said they won’t make changes but never say never, especially when it’s clear to everybody outside of the Clippers franchise that they need to make a change.
• Houston Rockets — a conference finalist last season, they imploded on the court and off. It’s hard to imagine a James Harden trade but Dwight Howard isn’t returning and other major moves will be considered.
• Cleveland Cavs — I addressed this earlier, in short a Cavs loss will result in LeBron taking a major action (either he leaves or Kyrie Irving/KLove leave). The highest probability of a major trade rests with the Cavs.
• Boston Celtics — Loaded with draft picks, cap space and lots of good young pieces, they are desperate for a star to build around. Look for them to be involved in every star trade discussion, particularly with Cavs (Irving and/or Love) and 76’ers.
• Philadelphia 76’ers — A change in team leadership has resulted in public declarations that the team is looking to move some of it’s recent top 3 selection “bigs” for shooting and veteran play. Likely will make a move with Celtics but they will be another player in the trade machine.

If the Golden State Warriors win their second consecutive title, the madness will reach it’s apex due to teams being convinced they must shift strategy (to compete with the Warriors), LeBron will want to make changes adding to the pre-existing changes in store. The fun will start with the NBA draft and hit full tilt fun in early July with the opening of free agency. League observers and fans will be excited with all the big headlines and changes, and they can thank the cap increase and the change in the power structure. It’s going to be a fun merry go round for all to enjoy during the dog days of summer.