Podcast: 2023 Fantasy Football Sleepers

Episode 29 of the Fantasy Sports Collective podcast tackles fantasy sleeper takes for the 2023 season.

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Podcast: 2023 Fantasy Football Sleepers

2023 Fantasy Football Sleepers to Maximize ROI
_Episode 29 of the Fantasy Sports Collective Podcast covers host JayDubb’s stance on the 2023 NFL Fantasy Football…_share.transistor.fm

Episode 29 of the Fantasy Sports Collective podcast tackles fantasy sleeper takes for the 2023 season.

Everybody can find rankings, every fantasy site and analyst produces them. The critical content are the players who will significantly out perperform the rankings, those that are undervalued, who return outsized results versus their cost. That’s what separates winners from losers, finding great value in middle and late-round selections.

Without further ado, here are the guys I’m hanging my hat on this year. I won’t hit on each but I’ll give you my conviction and allow you to decide.

QB Deshaun Watson (Cleveland) — Put aside moral issues from off-the-field actions. If you don’t want this guy on your team, I understand that point. In addition, preseason performance and camp reports have been mediocre. But Watson was a perennial top 5 fantasy QB for 4 straight seasons with a below-average supporting cast in Houston. He’s in his prime with above-average to outstanding talent around him. There is risk, but he’s a player who can return top 5 positional talent being selected outside of the top 10.

QB Brock Purdy (SF) — I could also go with Kenny Pickett here, but the small sample size in 2022 and the surrounding cast for Purdy are elite. In his 7 starts that he played the full game, he averaged 2.3 TDs a game (14 TD passes & 2 TD runs). He may regress some on the touchdown scale but look at the surrounding talent — he has arguably the best RB (CMC), two top 20 receivers (Deebo & Aiyuk), and a top 5 tight end (Kittle), and talent behind them. He could be a flash in the pan or a creative point guard type who dishes 30 total TDs and nearly 4k yards. He’s being selected in the twenties but could quickly become a top-10 fantasy QB and an excellent pairing for a stable veteran such as Aaron Rodgers.

RB Khalil Herbert (Chicago) — He’s going in the 30’s (RB rankings) but he will perform in the low 20’s if not mid-teens. In 100+ carries the past two seasons, Herbert has been a top 10 efficiency runner. If he can retain 85% of his efficiency and increase his utilization by 50%, he’ll touch on RB2 territory, and he currently is a late RB3 or Flex fantasy draft cost. Without injuries, Herbert could be a high-end RB2 with a higher ceiling. Here’s the base case. Donta Foreman is a good runner, but terrible pass protection and advanced statistics say he’s not as good as Herbert. Rookie Roschon Johnson has been fine this preseason, but his pass protection and running are not better than Herbert. Look at the games David Montgomery missed, and Herbert was featured last season — he was a late RB1 in that 4-game stretch. He’ll far outperform his fantasy draft cost if he gets 60% of the work.

RB David Montgomery (Detroit) — Montgomery is far from sexy, but he’s finished 22, 6, 20, and 21 overall in fantasy productivity at running back the past four years. Now he gets to play behind arguably the best run-blocking offensive line in an offense that lacks a running quarterback option or alternative to run between the tackles. Yet he’s being selected as a late RB2 or RB3 performer. In short, playing in a subpar offense, he’s consistently been an RB2 (or better), and now he’s in a superior situation, and he’s going as an RB3. Take the arbitrage and select him safely.

RB Isiah Pacheco (KC) — The former 7th-rounder demonstrated in the playoffs and Super Bowl that he’s a dynamic, hard-nosed runner who can move the pile and make plays out of the backfield. The Chiefs won’t consolidate all running back touches with Pacheco but he doesn’t need that to finish as a top 15 fantasy performer. Just extrapolate his production from week 9 on, he was on a 265 carry, 1400 yard 8 td pace. Even while only playing as the 3rd back until midseason, he finished the year as the #33 fantasy RB. So why is he going as the 30th fantasy back this year? His ceiling is top 10, but his floor is likely top 20. Take the difference to the bank.

WR Garrett Wilson (NY Jets) — This is less of an underrated callout versus a potential massive breakout star call. Wilson could ascend to top 5 production this year, and his ceiling is the #1 overall receiver with Aaron Rodgers throwing him the ball. Rodgers has singled him out (watch Hard Knocks episodes 3 and 4) as “special,” and it appears he’ll be the receiver he focuses on being his primary option. If he gets into the 150 to 175 target range (Rodgers historically has had a primary receiver receive that quantity), Wilson will be in line to exceed 100 catches, 1400 yards, and 8 to 10 TDs. If he’s in that range, he’s excellent value currently being drafted out of the top 10 fantasy receivers.

WR Skyy Moore (KC) — Moore was on all sorts of hype lists last year as a rookie who would shine. However, we forget it’s difficult for rookies to make immediate splashes in complex, mature, high-performing offenses. Moore knows the offense and is one of the elder statesmen in the receiving room. Furthermore, 135 targets departed the team, and it’s possible that at some point, Travis Kelce will slow down and cede some of his 150+ targets to another receiver. If Moore steps into the #2 target role (behind Kelce), he’ll see more than 100 targets, putting him in line for 65 catches and somewhere in the neighborhood of 800 to 850 yards. The floor could be low but the ceiling is high. Given he’s outside the top 40 WR’s, he’s worth the investment in the late rounds as a guy who could jump this year into WR2 territory.

WR Adam Thielen (CAR) — Old veteran free-agent wide receiver additions usually are not good fantasy investments. However, Thielen may be the exception. He’s being selected in the wide receiver forties range. His production has declined the past few years, but that coincides with the emergence and sheer dominance of his running mate, Justin Jefferson. Now, in Carolina, paired with hyper-accurate rookie Bryce Young, he should be the rookie’s security blanket. Thielen is a master route runner, he’s exceptional on 3rd downs and in the red zone, which are the crucial plays for Young. Given the lack of experience in the Carolina receiver room, he can expect to see 115–130 targets, 75+ catches, 950 yards, and 8+ TD’s. That’s a borderline WR2 and an every-week flex starter that can be found in the back of your fantasy draft.

TE Tyler Higbee (LA Rams) — Higbee burned me a few years back when I placed him on my list, so you’ve been forewarned. But the stats back it up, and the opportunity ahead is wide open. He set career highs last year in targets (108) and catches (72) playing in an abysmal Rams offense. If Stafford returns to form, Higbee could match his target and catch total but increase his YPC back to ‘18-’20 avg of 12, which would equate to an 850-yard season. Give him 6 touchdowns and he’d be a top 5 fantasy TE, returning great value since he’s outside the top 12 today (though his ADP has spiked the past week).

FSCollective Podcast is sports talk primarily covering the NBA, NFL, College Football, and Fantasy Football realms. We sprinkle in other topics as they’re relevant throughout the year. You can find more written pieces and our collection of podcasts at FSCollective.com.

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