The Curious Case of Michael Penix Jr.

I am a fan of Michael Penix. He can and will be a productive starting NFL quarterback. I also agree that the Atlanta Falcons’ selection of…

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The Curious Case of Michael Penix Jr.

The Curious Case of Michael Penix Jr.
_Episode 76 of the Fantasy Sports Collective Podcast covers the curious case of the Atlanta Falcons selecting QB Michael…_share.transistor.fm

I am a fan of Michael Penix. He can and will be a productive starting NFL quarterback. I also agree that the Atlanta Falcons’ selection of him as the 8th overall pick in the 2024 draft following the signing of Kirk Cousins for $180 million is a curious case.

I will argue, though, that while this selection may be short-term misguided, it’s a good landing spot for Penix that will put him in the best possible position to be a 10-plus-year NFL starting quarterback.

Let me first state the curious states of this selection.

• Kirk Cousins signed a four-year, $180 million contract in February. This contract is for a minimum of two years, so Penix is likely to sit and watch for a minimum of two seasons.
• Michael Penix is 24 years old; he’s started more than 40 college games in the Big 10 and Pac 12 and is as ready as any rookie quarterback to start now.
• Drafting a QB top 10 gives a team a salary arbitrage if they hit since they can spend the $30 million-plus on other positions to win now. For an 8th overall selection with a $50 million quarterback already on the roster mitigates the salary advantage.
• The Atlanta brass rationale that this is the “Green Bay way,” fails to acknowledge that the Packers quarterbacks were taken in the mid-20s, with far less cost risk and investment.

While I agree with all the punditry piling on the rationale of why the Atlanta Falcons should not have selected Penix, there are factors we don’t know that may have forced them to take the approach they did.

Based on the Atlanta Falcons’ words and actions, we should assume that they fell in love with Penix after the Cousins signing (most of the intensive scouting work happens after the start of free agency). Penix, in particular, was reportedly very impressive in interviews, workouts, and in back-channel work. Furthermore, there is a lot of smoke that the Las Vegas Raiders would select Penix at pick 13; there are some rumors that the Minnesota Vikings and Denver Broncos favored Penix. In short, Atlanta probably could not trade back much, if at all, and still secure Penix.

In short, Atlanta’s one and only valid complaint is the signing of Kirk Cousins IF they had considered a rookie quarterback at all, but the timing may not have made this possible.

Here is the case for why Penix will be a 10-year NFL starting quarterback.

• Penix demonstrated consistent improvement throughout his college career. He elevated every team when he was behind center (leading Indiana to its first top 10 ranking in 50 years and leading Washington back to the national title game) and improved every year. Injury history aside, Penix was an impact player every season.
• Penix athleticism is great for a QB, running 4.6 40, 36 inches vertical & 10.5 broad jump.
• Penix’s arm and ability to make every NFL throw at an elite level were shown this past season and at his workouts, leading to many teams increasing his value between the post-season and the end of the year.
• Sitting for two years behind Kirk Cousins increases his probability of success. First-round quarterbacks who sit outperform those thrown into action immediately.
• Atlanta’s young skill position talent is potentially elite. Bijan Robinson (8th overall pick), Drake London (8th overall pick), and Kyle Pitts (4th overall pick) are all younger than Penix, allowing them to grow up together. This talent base gives Penix a foundation to grow into.

How should fantasy evaluate Michael Penix in 2024?

Ultimately, for most of you (redraft league, small super flex dynasty), you can wait to select him for a year or more to see how Kirk Cousins returns from his injury and how the Falcons’ offense develops.

For those in super flex dynasty leagues, think of Penix as a higher-probability lottery ticket for the 2026 season, with an outside chance at relevance in 2025.

In these instances, the opportunity is to buy low, develop (allow him to mature on your roster), and then reap the rewards as he takes the starting job in an offense with elite weapons.