Top Fantasy Football Rookie RB’s

This year’s group of rookie running backs is deep with talents that will deliver immediate contributions in committees and many who…

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Top Fantasy Football Rookie RB’s

This year’s group of rookie running backs is deep with talents that will deliver immediate contributions in committees and many who eventually will be fantasy starters in the years ahead. It’s not a class that’s easy to project immediate production, a result of draft capital (where a player is selected) and NFL teams move towards equal distribution schemes, but it is one that will deliver productive fantasy contributors.

There is one “can’t miss” rookie in Dallas’ Ezekiel Elliott (arguably the best combo in decades of talent, situation and draft capital at the RB position). Beyond Elliott there are a few players (D.Henry & K.Dixon) selected to be primary backs for their respective teams, and nearly a dozen others who are setup for near term success depending on injury and performance in the preseason. So while this isn’t a 2008 type draft class (McFadden, C. Johnson, R.Mendenhall, R.Rice, J.Charles among others) it’s strong thanks to the sheer depth of quality, 3 down type performers, and there will be some surprises as early as ’16 with a few putting up RB2 type numbers and becoming key fantasy contributors right out the gate.

You can read the evaluation principles I use, however it’s important to note that I’m just one subjective opinion. I get my fair share right but I miss badly too, and with anything it’s important to aggregate as many perspectives to come up with your own. Lastly the $ figures are for a $500 salary cap league, adjust the figures according to your league format.

Top 2016 Rookie RB’s

Ezekiel Elliott showing his style.

Dallas — RB Ezekiel Elliott (@$55) — The history of top fifteen nfl draft selections at rb since ’05 is poor. However the team (great offensive line) and scheme fit seem to mitigate any history concerns. Elliott passes the eye test, lived up to the measurables at the combine and was ultra productive on the biggest stage. Barring an injury, Elliott has a high probability to be in the LaDanian & Adrian Peterson class of rookie. Thus in fantasy he’s in a tier by himself, significantly more valuable than any other player this year (or any rookie to enter the NFL since ’12). Projection: RB1 with upside.

Tennessee — RB Derrick Henry (@$55) — The Titans have the NFL’s ’14 rushing champion on their roster, DeMarco Murray, so Henry enters a crowded backfield. However NFL teams use second round picks on players who they intend to start. Henry has a high floor as a more athletic, productive Brandon Jacobs clone, with a Eddie George running style. He’s a grinding, power run offensive attack running back. He will either share touches to start or usurp the starting role early in the season. Projection: RB2 with upside (in non PPR leagues in particular he will challenge RB1 status in the 2nd half of ‘ 16).

Baltimore — RB Kenneth Dixon (@$35) — Draft selection isn’t ideal (4th round, #134 overall) but landing spot is arguably perfect. The Ravens have a veteran at the end of their career, Justin Forsett, and very little draft capital behind that. Dixon is the highest drafted pick on the team, and he is a tremendous receiver out of the backfield. Ravens OC Marc Trestman consistently deploys a running back centric passing scheme, a strength of Dixon’s, a strong indication he could be heavily productive as a receiver. Odds are high he starts the year in the 3rd down role but he has the size/experience/skill to be the featured guy. Projection: RB3 with RB2 potential if he carves out a larger role.

Seattle — RB C.J. Prosise (@$30) — The pros are strong….great hands/receiving ability, explosive, strong runner; Seattle is one of the most productive running teams; Seattle’s RB depth chart is unsettled…Rawls looked great but got hurt and behind him it’s mostly unknown. They didn’t use a 3rd round pick on the former WR turned RB to sit him, expect 3rd down work immediately which means there’s always an opening for more. Projection: Flex starter assuming he wins 3rd down role with RB2 potential in ’16.

Chicago — RB Jordan Howard ($30) — Call this one a hunch…and grounded in the simple fact the alternatives have proven to be ineffective. Howard reminds me of the old Carolina Panthers bell cow Stephen Davis who starred under current Chicago Bears head coach John Fox a decade ago. Howard wasn’t a high pick but neither were Kadeem Carey (4th) or Jeremy Langford (4th), and he’s the type of between the tackles threat that could lead to a 200+ touch season. Projection: Handcuff/prospect with RB2 potential if he performs well in training camp to wrest the job away from Langford.

Washington — RB Keith Marshall (@$20) — The former Georgia Bulldog is an athletic marvel with ideal size & speed that led him to post the best speed score on record (since ’99) @126.9. While Speed Score isn’t perfect (only 5 of the top ten ever had a top 20 fantasy season — Chris Johnson, Darren McFadden, Brandon Jacobs, Ronnie Brown and Kevin Jones). Perennial teases Knile Davis and Justin Fargas also show up on the list. And to put this in perspective the previous all time record holder is the illustrious Mario Fannin. Matt Jones (3rd round in ’15) and Chris Thompson are ahead of him though, but neither has shown explosive, featured guy stuff yet. So their is a large crack in the proverbial door. Projection: Prospect with RB1 potential if many questions are answered.

NYG — RB Paul Perkins (@$20) — The fact he fell to the 5th round is troubling but the landing spot and natural skill soothe any draft spot anxiety. Watching Perkins run with soft hands out of the backfield I can’t understand how he fell. The football giants have aging featured back (RJennings), a typecast pass catcher (Vereen) and a former fourth round bust (AWilliams). Perkins has the size/speed/versatility to carve out the Jennings role and in ’17 soak up the third down work as well. He needs to stay healthy and show marketable improvement but the window is there. Projection: Flex in ’16 if he can take touches from Jennings and/or Vereen, RB2 in ’17 by carving out a larger role.

MIA — RB Kenyan Drake ($20) — Drake went earlier than the draft pundits projected, and the 3rd round selection has been criticized. The top recruit from Alabama has the size/speed/quickness metrics that validate the potential; couple that with open opportunity in Miami means their is an opening for fantasy production. Whether Drake capitalizes and realizes the opportunity, and/or whether it’s sustainable is another question. If it weren’t for the talent and opportunity, I would be more skeptical. Projection: Flex potential in ’16, RB3 if Ajayi can’t handle the load.

DEN — RB Devontae Booker ($15) — The Broncos used a fourth round selection on the versatile Pac 12 back who resembles the starter they resigned this offseason CJ Anderson. Fantasy pundits are high on Booker, they see him as a three down capable back, who fits the Gary Kubiak offensive scheme well as a quick north south one cut runner. The Anderson comparison is strong though and the incumbent is proven. His efficiency and effectiveness over the past two years means Booker will be the backup barring injury but if pressed into duty he would be a fantasy starter. Projection: Strong prospect/handcuff for Anderson; RB2+ if CJ gets injured.

OAK — RB DeAndre Washington ($10) — The Raiders are woefully thin at running back with only veteran Latavius Murray in the mix. He ran for 1k yards last season and has shown explosiveness but he’s been inefficient. Washington has the necessary size/speed/productivity profile, he’s built in the Maurice Jones Drew mold which happens to be a style that Raiders HC Jack Del Rio’s appreciates. Washington’s never shown the strength or tenacity to make that comparison work, but entering an open depth chart on an ascending offense, he could be this year’s Alfred Morris. Projection: Handcuff to Murray to start; potential to ascend to RB2 if injury or performance issues hit Murray.

And More…..there are a handful of rookie running backs in addition to the above who have the potential to shock the fantasy world due to a combination of limited competition (either projected to be primary backup or in open competition). That group all deserves fantasy consideration in all 12+ team leagues and a few will be important waiver wire pickups this year. They are Tyler Ervin (Houston), Wendell Smallwood (Philadelphia), Daniel Lasco (New Orleans) and Alex Collins (Seattle).