Top Fantasy Football Rookie WR’s

The top wide receiver rookies in the nfl from a fantasy football perspective.

The top wide receiver rookies in the nfl from a fantasy football perspective.

The top 2016 NFL Rookie WR’s

Top Fantasy Football Rookie WR’s

My 2016 rookie projections are based on extensive film watching of the players entering the NFL, review of camp reports, analysis of opportunity in front of these rookie wide receivers which lead to a projection for each player. For wide receivers, more so than any other position, are dependent on targets. This is the running back equivalent of a touch. Twenty years ago the thought of a rookie receiver being fantasy in their inaugural season was unheard of, now with the proliferation of spread and passing concepts at the collegiate level, more and more players are entering the NFL with the experience and skill set to succeed immediately. This year’s batch of rookie wide receivers is solid, however it’s not at the same level as recent seasons, there are several players who will develop into featured playmakers and a couple with the potential to be perennial pro bowlers. I only looked at the initial three rounds of the draft.

  1. Cleveland — WR Corey Coleman — Coleman has a clear path to a majority of targets, the difference though relative to Treadwell is his supporting cast (no Adrian Peterson running the ball or even a mediocre quarterback solution like Teddy Bridgewater). Coleman is the most talented receiver in this draft, though not in the Julio Jones, AJ Green, Calvin Johnson type of size/ability, but given his team, it maybe ’18 or later before he has the stability in the offense to be fantasy WR1 relevant. He’s a playmaker though with Steve Smith like ability but in a bigger, more athletic frame. Projection: WR3 with upside thanks to 115 Targets 67 Catches for 930 yards & 6 TD’s. Talent to be WR2+ depending on RG3 stability.
  2. Minnesota — WR Laquan Treadwell — This pick could occur three places earlier than Corey Coleman but I have concerns about Treadwell the athlete and competitor. I like Treadwell because he enters the most stable, clearest path to vast majority of the targets role as any rookie receiver. He’s inline to see a ton of targets as the possession receiver but he also takes a slight drop with the Teddy “No longer ballgame” Bridgewater injury, and the likely shift to an even more run focused offensive script. Projection: WR3 with limited upside at 110 Targets, 65 Catches, 920 yards and 6 TD’s.
  3. NYGiants — WR Sterling Shepard (@$15) — Another NFC East rookie and sneaky great landing spot. However unlike Doctson who has a path to the featured receiver role, Shepard will never be that to Odell Beckham. But Eli can sling it and he has the volume and history to support two top fantasy receivers. So if Shepard shows some pre-injury Victor Cruz slot ability, he could explode to a 120+ target, 75 catch, 900 yard, 6 td season with upside. Projection: Low end WR3 with some potential upside with 100 targets, 60 catches, 800 yards, 5 td production in the ODB complementary role.
  4. New Orleans — WR Michael Thomas (@$10) — Drew Brees has 150+ interior targets to replace in the middle with Colston & Watson’s departure. They signed Coby Fleener for the tight end position but he’s overrated, and the supporting cast is mostly throw ins. The NO’s passing focused attack won’t change this year and there’s not a clear dominant group ahead of Thomas, so he’s got an easy road to 100 targets as the second option behind Brandon Cooks. Projection: Low end WR3 with upside to WR2 in ’16 thanks to 100 targets, 60 catches, 800 yards and 5 TD projection.
  5. Tennessee Titans — WR Tajae Sharpe — Titans think they have struck gold with the rookie. He’s running sharp routes, has run with the “ones” since minicamps and continues to step up at every turn. There’s not a huge ceiling here but the floor is as high as any non 1st day selection half way through camp the past decade. With lots of uncertainty there’s real fantasy value in ’16 here. Projection: Flex/WR4 with 105 Targets, 65 Catches, 870 Yards and 5 TD’s in ’16.
  6. Cincinnati Bengals — WR Tyler Boyd — The Bengals lost their #2 and #3 WR’s this offseason to free agency, and their starting TE may open the season on the PUP list due to offseason surgery. Boyd enters the NFL as a career marketshare star at the University of Pittsburgh, and he has the look of a solid inside/outside possession type of receiver. The issue with Boyd is he doesn’t exhibit any unique talent (size, speed, physicality) that portends a player who will excel further at the NFL level. Projection: Flex/WR4 as the starter opposite AJ Green with 100 Targets, 65 Catches, 750 Yards & 5 TD’s with WR3 if Bengals offense continues it’s success minus OC Hue Jackson.
  7. Washington — WR Josh Doctson — The team from our nation’s capital invested a lot of draft capital at wide receiver, using their first round selection on the former Baylor Bear star, Josh Doctson. On paper this was a surprise, the Redskins have two above average starting receivers (Pierre Garcon & Desean Jackson), however if you look at age and contract status, you notice Doctson could be the featured guy by ’17 if not sooner. Doctson passes the eye and production tests, and while his measureables weren’t off the charts, history has shown us his probability of production is high. Projection: Flex in ’16 with upside at 95 Targets, 55 Catches, 720 yards and 4 td’s as they phase out Garcon & Jackson this year.
  8. Houston Texans — WR Will Fuller — The Texans first round selection this year joins a receiving core that includes all pro DeAndre Hopkins but a glaring hole opposite him. Fuller is a nice complement to Hopkins, he’s a speedster with incredible playmaking ability in the open field. With the attention Hopkins demands, Fuller will see a lot of man or zone coverage with less safety support, which should translate into the big plays he was known for at Notre Dame. Projection: Flex/WR4 due to Houston’s mediocre offense; 95 Targets, 54 Catches, 700 yards and 3 td’s. Long term Fuller can develop into a Torrey Smith (in Balt) type of deep threat hitting 1k yards and 7 td’s.
  9. Miami Dolphins — WR Leonte Carroo — One of the more physically gifted receivers in this class, Carroo would be much higher ranked and discussed in fantasy circles if he’d landed on a team with a clearer path to targets and/or an elite quarterback. Unfortunately Carroo gets neither in Miami, however he also joins a team without an established hierarchy and the potential to develop into the featured guy. Ascending ahead of Jarvis Landry and Devante Parker is a tall order but Carroo has that type of talent. Projection: WR Prospect (floor) with 50 targets, 35 Catches, 450 Yards & 2 Td’s in 16 but high end talent to ascend to WR3 (ceiling) next season.
  10. New England Patriots — WR Malcolm Mitchell — The Patriots have struggled to hit on early receiver selections the past ten years so they’ve made due with free agents/acquisitions (Randy Moss, Wes Welker, Julian Edelman, Danny Amendola, Brandon LaFell). Mitchell maybe another in a long line of busts or maybe he becomes the example of regression to the mean. The supremely athletic, high football IQ player, Mitchell played extensively at CB early in his Georgia career. Given all the existing established Pats receivers are veterans at or past their prime, the opportunity is there for Mitchell. However there’s a lot of projection here given Mitchell’s history and the Pats organization. Projection: WR5 at best; some potential in future years.
  11. Houston Texans — WR Braxton Miller — The Texans have a specific plan to incorporate the unique talents of Miller, reportedly building sub packages just to get the ball in his hands. There is no questioning the athletic ability or versatility of the former Big 10 MVP who was masterful as a QB and quickly became a weapon as a receiver. The challenge is it’ll take several years for the transition to happen, so it’s unlikely Miller is anything more than a gadget player. Thus he’ll be drafted too early (or even at all in small leagues) and won’t present much redraft value at all. Projection: Incredible prospect but unlikely to be productive in ’16.