Top NFL Rookie Fantasy Football QB’s

The top NFL rookie quarterbacks from a dynasty keeper league perspective for 2016.

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Rating 2016 NFL Rookie QB’s

Cody Kessler = Biggest Sleeper / Jared Goff = Draft’s safest choice

I watch college football with a discerning eye to how these collegiate talents may or may not translate to the next level. This passion at prognostication started in the late 1980’s along with an increased focus and dedication towards fantasy football in general. You can read the evaluation principles I use, however it’s important to note that I’m just one subjective opinion. I get my fair share right but I miss badly too, and with anything it’s important to aggregate as many perspectives to come up with your own.

This year’s quarterback class is deep, however it lacks the traditional measure of sure thing starting options. Historically top picks (top 5 & first round selections) are approximately a fifty fifty proposition of developing into long-term solutions; this year’s draft appears likely to be no different. Where this class though is deep is it features nearly a half dozen guys who have the talent & experience at the college level to eventually develop into competent starting quarterbacks. Many of these won’t ever achieve that goal but thanks to draft position, many will receive the necessary learning time to maximize that opportunity to succeed, and thus by 2020 we may look back upon this year’s draft as one of the best quarterback classes for late round prospects ever.

An important note, these 2016 NFL fantasy football rookie projections are based on the flex quarterback league structure (you can read about here). The short summary is advanced leagues allow a quarterback in a flex spot, making the best lineup two quarterbacks. This format makes the top 15 quarterbacks highly coveted and all starting quarterbacks valuable, regular starters, similar to the real NFL game we all love. Lastly the $ figures are for a $500 salary cap league, adjust the figures according to your league format.

Top 2016 Fantasy Football QB Rankings

Los Angeles — QB Jared Goff (@$55) — It’s still weird to write Los Angeles next to a player evaluation. Golf’s advanced metrics and scouting suggest he’s a lock to develop into top fifteen performer, albeit not a lot of evidence he’ll be a top five type long term. The eye test and frequent comparison to Matt Ryan is on point…however under Jeff Fisher with little receiving talent, I project several Alex Smith type seasons early in his career, though the probability he’s a quality NFL starter for a decade is high. Projection: QB2; dynasty upside to be QB1 in the coming years.

Philadelphia — QB Carson Wentz (@$55) — I’m not high on Wentz so being listed 2nd has all to do with his draft selection than anything. Scouts and metrics are split on Wentz, historically small school quarterbacks drafted this high have performed above expectation. However I’m biased by the recent over drafting of quarterbacks following the rookie salary cap change in the most recent CBA. History says top QB selections are 50/50 propositions, my gut says the Eagles will be on the losing end of that coin flip. Projection: Backup/QB2 with Sam Bradford as starting next two years.

Denver — QB Paxton Lynch (@$40) — Lynch has NO value in redraft leagues as the Broncos plan to sit him for ’16. However he will be expected to challenge for the job in ’17 and will inherit a very solid foundation; above average OL, great receivers in Demaryius Thomas, Emanuel Sanders and CJ Anderson. Some will put him above Wentz due to landing spot but draft selection says Wentz will get more time to figure it out. Projection: Backup but QB1 potential in ’ 17.

Cleveland — QB Cody Kessler (@$35) — The Browns surprised by using a 3rd round pick on the experienced USC quarterback. In an ironic twist likely due to so many Trojan quarterbacks flaming out the past decade (Matt Leinart, John David Booty, Mark Sanchez & Matt Barkley), Kessler is underrated. He’s started 40 games the past three years, compiling a 27–13 record in the midst of reduced scholarships, slightly incompetent coaching and program turmoil. Kessler has NFL level qualities such as size, Pac 12 production and lands with a team who just hired a proven quarterback developer in Hue Jackson in a quarterback friendly offensive system. He’s a high risk at this draft position but the odds of him getting a chance to show whether he’s a long-term option are high. Projection: Backup/QB2; long term QB2.

NYJ — QB Christian Hackenberg ($15) — I believe an exceptional teammate can escalate a player’s college performance, skewing their true ability. Hackenberg had a promising freshman year at an emotionally bankrupt point at Penn State following the Sandusky scandal. The freshman year combined with his prep scouting reports overruled the past few years of mediocre results, both personally and as a team. However former teammate Allen Robinson has emerged as a top 10, possibly top 5 NFL receiver. Which leads me to believe Hackenberg was propped up and likely will bust, even as a backup, at the pro level. Projection: Bust

Dallas — QB Dak Prescott ($10) — The Cowboys are desperate for a competent backup to the perpetually injured, 36 year old Tony Romo. The depth chart behind Romo is wide open, and Prescott has the dual threat, Donovan McNabb like talent; who if played has high probability of fantasy relevant. As a dynasty candidate he is blocked by Romo but injuries and age provide a window of hope. Projection: Romo backup with dynasty value in ’19 if he learns & progresses the next few years.

Buffalo — QB Cardale Jones ($10) — Tyrod Taylor was sneaky efficient and showed tremendous potential last year but the teams actions show they’re not convinced yet. Taylor was a veteran starter with multiple BCS game starts for Virginia Tech. He got his chance last year and ’16 will determine whether he gets the $100M contract or is a career backup. That’s where Jones comes in. The highly inexperienced Jones started less than 10 games at Ohio State and appeared talented but very raw; coupled with mediocre draft location (4th round) puts him in long shot territory. However there are flashes and many strong opinions for him (i.e. Matt Waldman @The Rookie Scouting Portfolio loves him) to dismiss him as an option. If he gets at least a year to sit & learn, the odds will improve. Projection: Backup with starting potential in ’17 or ’18.

Oakland — QB Conner Cook ($8) — The Derek Carr ascension story has dominated the analysis but a deeper look tells a less efficient story. The selection of Cook infuses the roster with an experienced BCS leading quarterback with starting NFL skills. At points Cook was considered a top prospect, however questions about his leadership and ability to make good decisions caused him to drop. The eye test and production show a player capable of starting at the NFL level, the measureables and intangibles component concern me. Projection: Backup with long shot odds of starting.

San Francisco — QB Jeff Driskel ($8) — Driskel, a former five star recruit who started at Florida but developed at Louisiana Tech, falls into an ideal situation. Chip Kelly inherited a reclamation depth chart of Blaine Gabbert and Colin Kaepernick. You can make a legitimate case for both, and odds are high one or both fill the position this year. However there’s also a high probability neither is the long term answer opening the door for the rookie Driskel. Driskel has good size, is athletic, has an NFL arm and checks all the boxes as a legitimate sleeper. Projection: Sleeper to start games in 2nd half of ’16, long shot to be the long term solution.