Why NFL Preseason Games Don’t Matter Much

Preseason is generally worthless, particularly statistically. Disagree?

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Why NFL Preseason Games Don’t Matter Much

Preseason game statistics do not matter

NFL Preseason Games Don’t Matter (for the most part)
_Episode 82 of the Fantasy Sports Collective Podcast is an overview of why NFL Preseason games don’t matter, and…_share.transistor.fm

Preseason is generally worthless, particularly statistically. Disagree?

Remember Ryan Leaf? He lit up the preseason after being the #2 overall pick. Do you recall what happened to him in the regular season?

Remember Ja’Marr Chase? He couldn’t catch the ball, and he missed some once the season started. He was a HOF right out of the gate. O’Dell Beckham, missed most of the only to be pro-ready immediately.

Or let’s look at C.J. Stroud from last year’s camp. He was 11 of 20 for sub 80 yards (4 yards per attempt) with 1 pick and touchdown. Word from camp was he looked like a “rookie”.

The point is do NOT let a preseason game stat line or specific play, or a social media highlight sway what you see from your own eyes, from the team’s depth chart, draft capital and the competition around them. I admit I watch preseason games BUT I’m looking at specific things by position.

QB

Does the quarterback look smooth in their dropbacks? Does the team snap from the huddle and get the off on time? Do they move through their reads and then deliver a catchable ball? Can they move within the pocket to get clear passing lines?

Example: I liked Bo Nix today, he was decisive, had good command of the offense and showed he’s capable to play at this level. I saw something similar from JJ McCarthy, Drake Maye, Michael Penix Jr and Caleb Williams.

RB

I’m looking at when they play, who they are playing with, and their role. A pass-list or between-the-tackles guy. How do they look in an NFL uniform (for rookies)? Do they run extremely hard? Are they able to demonstrate the playing speed necessary to be productive?

An example of a surprise was the Chicago Bears’ first team yesterday, where but was mostly their change-of-pace guy, while Khahil Herbert dominated the neutral, early-down snaps and out-touched Swift. Does this mean Swift should drop and Herbert jump? NO, but it shows they plan a role for Herbert, and possibly our POV on his role may need to adjust.

WR

Similar to running back, where is the player in the game, is it clearly 2nd team or 3rd, is he the slot, or mostly playing on the outside. What are those roles like for this team? What does he look like in an NFL uniform?

Example: Malik Nabers looked solid in his uniform, well built from top to bottom. He showed explosive movement off the line, he got separation, and he played ONLY with the 1st team. Now, he didn’t have t that’s fine; when they watch the film,the coaches will call out that they missed multiple chunk plays. Conversely I was underwhelmed by Brian Thomas Jr. in terms of how he looked, what his role maybe and when he played. He got time in 3 receiver sets with Trevor Lawrence but he also was playing with the backups (vs. Nabers who was pulled with the 1’s).

TE

This is similar to the backs and receivers. I put more weight here on where/when they’re playing, and how they’re being used.

Example: Brock Bowers was used as a big slot as much with the 1’s as we’ve been led to believe, and he dominated targets on the first drive of the game. What I saw was an athlete who could be a 100 target monster and very productive in 2024 BUT remember it’s preseason so this is just one signal.