Will Dolphins force feed rookie TE Mike Gesicki?

The Miami Dolphins invested an early second round selection on tight end Mike Gesicki, from Penn State University. Gesicki was a solid…

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Will Dolphins force feed rookie TE Mike Gesicki?

Gesicki has the talent and opportunity but is Miami the right situation?

The Miami Dolphins invested an early second round selection on tight end Mike Gesicki, from Penn State University. Gesicki was a solid college performer who was a 2nd or early 3rd down prospect when he went to the combine, however after delivering one of the best athletic tight end testing performances in combine history, he shot up boards. The challenge in projecting his fantasy performance both near & long-term is the offensive system and coach he plays for. Adam Gase simply hasn’t prioritized the position and that means Gesicki will likely be overvalued in fantasy leagues.

TE Mike Gesicki

• Size: 6’5” / 247
• Draft Selection: #42 (2018)
• Depth Chart: TE1 (competing w/ veterans Gavin Escobar & AJ Derby for starter reps)
• ’18 Outlook: TE2+ (TE1 if he quickly adapts to NFL)
• Athletic Profile: Elite (Player Profiler)
• Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/mikegesicki/
• NFL Comparison: Vernon Davis (primarily athletic profile comp)

Outlook: Adam Gase, Miami’s head coach and offensive guru, has utilized the tight end position in the past (Denver eg) however his Miami teams have been in the bottom third (100 or less total TE targets). Gesicki, selected in the early 2nd round, has the college resume and athletic profile that projects success though. With the loss of more than 150 targets (Jarvis Landry) and no established tight ends on the roster, Gesicki could be force-fed 80+ targets, resulting in mid TE1 (or greater) rookie year performance. The probability though is low that Gesicki will be a top fantasy producer this year and there are reasons to believe he will never be a major impact performer under Adam Gase’s direction.

Opportunity: Miami simply hasn’t utilized the tight end position enough in its passing offense to have automatic faith in Gesicki (or any Dolphins TE). Their talent level at the position in recent history hasn’t been elite but a veteran Julies Thomas (with Gase history) is a strong enough proxy to give us a good indication (62 targets in ’17). Thus while the Dolphins need to replace a ton of targets (Landry departure + Thomas), it’s more than likely that Gesicki slots into the 60 target range as a rookie, making it difficult (sans off the charts TD efficiency) for him to be anything more than a bye week TE replacement.

Long-term: Gesicki has one of the best overall profiles in this year’s tight end rookie class. Athletically he’s up there with some of the best ever (hence Vernon Davis comp), he played well in a secondary receiving role at Penn State and profiles as a modern versatile in-line blocker and big slot receiver. He will need to show improved commitment to his blocking to achieve his full potential as an every snap performer. He has potential but so long as Gase is the head coach, his ceiling appears to be mid to low end TE1.